INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL IS DEEPENING BUT PUBLIC REIT PERFORMANCE SIGNALS A MARKET REALITY CHECK

The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has committed Kshs 9.5bn to the Nairobi - Nakuru Toll Road, marking its first direct investment in a public road project. The Kshs 170.0bn PPP project is being executed in partnership with China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and Shandong Hi-Speed Road and Bridge International Engineering (SDRBI).

𝐍𝐒𝐒𝐅’𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 - Taking 40% of the equity portion in its consortium section - reflects a strategic pivot toward infrastructure as a long-duration, inflation - hedged asset class. For pension capital, this is a logical move: predictable cash flows, essential services exposure, and portfolio diversification beyond traditional real estate.
On the capital markets side, however, REIT pricing continues to tell a more cautious story.

𝐀𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟏𝟑 𝐅𝐞𝐛𝐫𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔:
Acorn D-REIT traded at Kshs 27.4
Acorn I-REIT traded at Kshs 23.2
ILAM Fahari I-REIT traded at Kshs 11.0, representing a 45% decline from its Kshs 20.0 inception price

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞.
While institutional investors are doubling down on infrastructure-backed real assets, listed REITs are still grappling with valuation compression, liquidity constraints, and investor risk repricing.

𝐌𝐲 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰:
Kenya’s real estate market is not shrinking - it is repricing and reallocating. Capital is migrating toward assets with visible cash flow resilience and sovereign alignment. Infrastructure is emerging as the preferred institutional play, while listed property vehicles must rebuild investor confidence through yield stability and improved liquidity.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝:
Will REIT reforms and market deepening restore public market participation, or will infrastructure continue absorbing the bulk of long-term capital?